Previously published on DZone.
Life means dealing with bad things that may or may not happen. We call them risks. We assess, evaluate, mitigate, accept, and sometimes blithely ignore them. Building complex and original software are inherently risky and the Agile way of working does not fix that. That’s why we need to be true to the value of courage. I’ll start my argument with a refresher on the topic and some practical examples.
The dictionary defines risks as the likelihood of bad things happening. Equally important is the nature and extent of the damage when the risk becomes a reality. The exact balance between probability and consequences is the bread and butter of actuaries at insurance companies. Their models inform them how likely it is that an average dwelling goes up in flames, so they can put a price on the collective risk of their millions of customers. Several houses are certain to burn down each year and their owners need to be reimbursed. It’s a predictable risk.
The Scala World Hiking Trip
This won’t do in aviation or civil engineering. Every lethal incident prompts an investigation to raise the standard and reduce risk up to the point where we are left with black swans only, events so rare and unpredictable you can’t possibly prepare for them. Most airline crashes are the result of these unknown unknowns.
Here’s a more mundane example. At Scala World 2019 I joined the attendees for the traditional pre-conference hike in the English Lake District. I had visited the area before and arrived with waterproof gear and sturdy boots, knowing the terrain and the unpredictable British weather, which even in September can be brutal.
We set off in the sunshine and of course, it had to rain for much of the walk. Several walkers had not read or minded the instruction email, or even checked the weather forecast. Arriving woefully unprepared in cotton jeans and t-shirts, they got thoroughly soaked and a little miserable. But there was safety in numbers. Spare ponchos were shared, and nobody would have been in mortal danger if they had sprained an ankle while clambering over slippery boulders with their inadequate footwear.
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